Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
