Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
